By now most people that know me know that these two weeks are two of my favorite weeks of the year. As an NBA nerd, I love to watch rosters restructure at the end of the season. Something about all that change usually interests me. If you like change like I do, this is your year. There are more questions right now than there probably have been at this point in an NBA offseason, possibly ever.
I may be being pessimistic about this, but I think this is actually one of the worst drafts in years. There are a few good lottery prospects and then after that, it seems to be slim pickings to me. There's usually a few diamonds in the rough, but I can't see more than twenty legit prospects in this group. Obviously Washington, Philadelphia, and New Jersey SHOULD improve with the top three overall selections. Both Washington and New Jersey should also be able to use their other two picks for a couple decent prospects.
You can make the basic "Who will my team draft?" statement for pretty much any team, with the exception of the Washington Wizards. It has been a foregone conclusion since they won the lottery that they will take John Wall with the number one overall pick. One can only hope Gilbert Arenas comes back a changed man. That would be a ferocious backcourt, if only a little on the small side. If the Wizards resign Josh Howard, they will have around 6 or 7 million to work with. If they don't resign him, they would have closer to 18 million in cap space. Option one doesn't bring many free agents to the table. Option two brings the potential to sign more free agents. Given their recent track records, I think they might be better off playing it safe and resigning Josh Howard. That way, they could definitely have 20 million or more to work with next summer. Their main rotation would consist of Arenas, Wall, Howard, and Andray Blatche. They could be a decent run and gun team with a quick big man. Combine that with John Wall seasoning for a season or two and you have a bright future. John Wall and Stephen Strasburg are the future of Washington pro sports.
Philadelphia is a team that is looking to be much improved this season. They now have Doug Collins as their coach for this next season. It appears as though they plan to take Ohio State's Evan Turner with the second overall pick. After that, they are still easily over the salary cap for this season. So at most, they could hope to sign a veteran for a minimum deal or a mid-level player. Their rotation to start the season will looks to consist of Jrue Holiday, Turner, Andre Iguodala, Elton Brand, Marreese Speights, and Spencer Hawes. I think this team is once again headed for a 30 win season. They will need to trade Iguodala for a real big man at some point if they want to have any chance at really competing again in the next few years.
Most draft experts have Derrick Favors going to the Nets with the third pick. I have been high on him for a couple years now, so I am excited about this. I would rather see him go o Philadelphia though. New Jersey will also come out of this draft with around 22 million in salary cap space to work with on some of the big free agents this summer. With that money, they can either go all in for Lebron, or possibly sign two of the "other" free agents and a mid-level. It is hard to really speculate right now, but currently their rotation would feature Favors, Devin Harris, Brook Lopez, and Yi Jianlian. If I were the Nets front office, I would be targeting Joe Johnson, John Salmons, and possibly a Mike Miller or Raymond Felton to compliment one of the first two. Obviously if they can sign Wade, James, Bosh, or Johnson, I'm sure they will jump at the opportunity.
The Cleveland Cavaliers don't have a pick in this year's draft. They have a lot to take care of as it is anyway. The Nuggets and Bobcats don't have any picks in this draft either. With three teams not having picks in the draft, that obviously means a few teams have three or more picks in this draft. Those teams are Washington (#1, 30, 35), New Jersey (#3, 27, 31), Minnesota (#4, 16, 23, 45, 56), Indiana (#10, 40, 57), Memphis (#12, 25, 28), Miami (#18, 41, 42, 49), and Oklahoma City (21, 26, 32, 51).
I will be posting more draft projections and updates throughout the week.
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